Published Papers

• Effects of Non-Contributory Pensions on Older Adult Mortality in Rural Mexico 

with William H. Dow, Susan W. Parker, Emma Aguila, Jorge Peniche, and Soomin Ryu

Journal of Human Resources, 2026.

We study an unconditional cash transfer program aimed at alleviating rural poverty among older adults, providing transfers to both men and women. Using death records and a triple difference design, we find that the impacts on mortality differ significantly by gender. We find a 5.5% reduction in mortality for women, and no evidence for men. In fact, we find evidence that mortality may have increased among men. We explore mechanisms using income and expenditure surveys and a triple difference-in-discontinuities design. We find little evidence of significant changes in key hypothesized mechanisms, except for declines in employment and hours worked.

• The Impact of Standardized Disease-Specific Healthcare Coverage

with Pablo Muñoz
Journal of Public Economics, 2025

We study the impact of a healthcare reform that standardized procedures and guaranteed the timely coverage of a set of diseases. Using Chile’s universe of death records and a difference-in-differences research design, we show that mortality from the diseases covered by this reform decreased by 4.4% and that the impact was larger on diseases more amenable to health care. This effect is not explained by disease-specific shocks or a resource shift from non-covered to covered diseases. Evidence from polytraumatized inpatients suggests that the reform equalized utilization rates as it reduced the dispersion of risk-adjusted surgery rates and spending across hospitals.

• Do Conditional Cash Transfers Reduce Hypertension?

with Emma Aguila, William H. Dow, Felipe Menares, Susan W. Parker, Jorge Peniche, and Soomin Ryu

Economics and Human Biology, 2024

Progresa, an anti-poverty conditional cash transfer program, has been a model for similar programs in more than 60 countries. Numerous studies have found positive impacts on schooling, the nutritional and health status of children and adolescents, and household consumption. However, the effects on the health of older adult beneficiaries have been particularly understudied. In this paper we analyze the effects of Progresa on middle-aged and older adult health, focusing on a high prevalence chronic condition: hypertension. Our results show that Progresa had significant benefits in terms of improved hypertension diagnosis and use of treatment drugs. However, we did not find significant changes in uncontrolled hypertension as measured by systolic and diastolic blood pressure biomarkers in household survey data. Thus, while cash transfer programs may facilitate financial access to healthcare visits and the ability to buy prescribed medicines, by itself the program might not improve hypertension outcomes without complementary healthcare system follow-up to ensure dosage titration and medication adherence. 

Working Papers

• Revisiting the Relationship Between Education and Longevity: Evidence of a “Staircase” Pattern in the United States Mortality

with Ryan D. Edwards and Josh R. Goldstein

We study the relationship between education, income, and longevity in U.S. mortality among males over 65 born in the early 20th century. While each additional year of schooling increases income, improvements in longevity are observed only at key educational milestones—8, 12, and 16 years—creating a “staircase” pattern. This pattern remains consistent across models and does not appear to be influenced by occupational differences. The lack of a straightforward dose-response relationship suggests that longevity benefits may reflect selective factors related to who completes each educational level rather than a direct effect of time spent in school.

• Do CCT Programs (Really) Reduce Mortality: 10 Year Evidence From Mexico

with Emma Aguila, William H. Dow, Susan W. Parker, Jorge Peniche, and Soomin Ryu 

Early work on the impacts of the pioneering program Progresa suggested large, short term effects of the program to reduce mortality of older adults in Mexico. We re-examine the effects of Progresa on elderly mortality rates after 10 years and find little evidence of lasting impacts of the Progresa program in reducing elderly mortality. We employ difference-in-differences models that exploit geographic variation in program expansion to estimate effects, focusing on high-poverty municipalities. We argue these results may not be surprising. Aging individuals were not generally the recipients in conditional cash transfer programs and the benefits provided were largely conditioned to school enrollment of children in the household. Health conditionalities required aging individuals to attend health clinics only once per year, a relatively minimal requirement. We re-analyze prior evidence suggesting large negative short-term impacts on mortality, and find that these results are somewhat sensitive, becoming smaller and/or insignificant with relatively minor changes in the specification. Combined with our own estimates, we conclude there is little evidence that Progresa reduced aging mortality during its first 10 years of operation.

Work in Progress

• The Effects of the Great Recession on Health in Mexico

Dormant

• The Long-Term Health Impact of World War II on Draftees' Wives 

This research aims to provide causal evidence on the impact of income shock due to the absence of breadwinners on women's long-term health. We plan to use cohorts of women married before WWII to compare the outcomes of those who got married to men who served in the conflict against those who did not. We will use the CenSoc WWII Army Enlistment Dataset, a cleaned and harmonized version of the National Archives and Records Administration’s Electronic Army Serial Number Merged File, ca. 1938 – 1946 (2002). It contains enlistment records for over 9 million men and women who served in the United States Army, including the Army Air Corps, Women’s Army Auxiliary Corps, and Enlisted Reserve Corps. It is a rich source of data on enlistee sociodemographic information, military service, and anthropometry.